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Well, when I configure my video using DivX, I often find that my average bitrate is significantly lower than the bitrate I assign. I'd have to check my program (which I don't have on this computer), but I suspect that it *does* use a variable bitrate, with the "assigned" bitrate being the maximum. The minimum? I suspect whatever a completely blank screen would be. (The reason my videos often end up "low" compared to the expected file size is because I use a lot of black screens with white text in my videos, which make for small file size.)
However, I use Vegas 8, so there might be a difference between your program and mine. Also, my answer here doesn't seem to address your central issue, which is how to see the filesize before you render. All I can say is to use your best judgment.
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